GEORGE TOWN: With Sunday polling day just hours away, all candidates are in a frantic rush to reach out as many as voters as possible in Penang.
Market tour, door-to-door visits and rallies have all intensified over the past few days as all candidates enter into their final laps to catch whatever and whoever’s votes they can in this island-state.
At times it’s amusing to see politicians shaking hands and smiling at strangers seeking their votes.
After all it’s rare and far in-between to see politicians regularly visiting their constituents with such big grin.
That’s when one would realise that voters are the kingmakers.
Some candidates are welcomed with open arms, some with warm reception and others given the cold shoulder.
Now those are vital signs on whether a candidate is winnable or not.
Incumbent ruling coalition Pakatan Rakyat and Barisan Nasional have been conducting regular brainstorming sessions for their candidates to rectify errors, fine-tune their campaigns and outline their strategies to make a breakthrough in “difficult” areas.
Violence has also marred smooth election campaign run-in, although so far it had been negligible.
BN state chairman Teng Chang Yeow was delivered a box on Thursday containing a chicken with its throat slit and a warning note asking him to withdraw from the election or face a similar “chicken” fate.
Teng, who faces a three-cornered fight in Bukit Tengah state state against incumbent Ong Chin Wen of PKR and independent A Mohan, urged the perpetrator to stop such threats.
As in past elections, allegations of money politics and vote buying have surfaced, as usual from Pakatan. But the DAP then has also contradicted itself.
On the one hand, it calls the people to reject money politics. On the other, the DAP has told voters to “put the [BN] money in your pocket, but cast your votes for Rocket”.
The DAP members held a protest against rumours that bookies were taking bets against incumbent Chief Minister and assemblyman Lim Guan Eng in Air Putih.
Lim faces BN’s Tan Ken Keong from MCA in a straight fight.
Whether Pakatan wins Penang or not, speculations are growing that Lim may lose in Air Putih. But that’s unthinkable.
Rumours said punters could earn RM500 each if Lim was defeated in his state constituency.
Food everywhere
Massive 1Malaysia parties are being organised by 1Malaysia Penang Welfare Club across the state.
People have been enjoying free food and drink, and entertainment, and lucky ones get lucky draw prizes, including motorcycles, washing machines and refrigerators at the parties.
Naturally the DAP has been irked by the presence of 1Malaysia parties, flags, banners and supporters wearing the welfare club T-shirts.
Its agitation is understandable given 1Malaysia parties, flags and banners obviously have outnumbered DAP’s rallies and campaign materials, even that of BN’s.
Thousands of ethnic Chinese are thronging these parties prompting one to think that the community had turned its back on the DAP and returned to BN.
A check, however, showed that most of these voters would eat BN’s free food and drinks but would prefer the Rocket, the DAP symbol.
As the 15-day campaign time ends, the question is: can Pakatan retain Penang? Or will BN cause an upset to regain Penang?
Obviously on the surface Pakatan looks the favourite to retain Penang.
In the last 2008 general election, Pakatan captured the state by winning 29 state seats against Umno-BN’s 11.
Pakatan also won 11 federal seats, while BN got two through Umno. Gerakan, MCA and MIC were all wiped out.
According to the Election Commission’s gazetted electoral roll as at Feb 22, 2013, Penang has 847,961 registered voters.
Ethnic Chinese with 452,594 or 53.37% voters form the majority, especially on the island.
The Malays follow at 299,031 or 35.26% while the Indians comprise 92,320 or 10.89% and others make up the balance of 4,016 or 0.48%.
A total of 131 candidates will contest in 13 parliamentary and 40 state seats in Penang this time.
One would agree that Pakatan rallies attract bigger crowd. A mammoth crowd crammed the Esplanade field during Pakatan rally two weeks ago. Last night, a rally at the same spot saw 100,000 people turning up to support Pakatan.
However, BN has been setting its strategies on a different footing. It focuses its resources more on winnable seats which are mostly Malay-dominated and ethnically mixed seats.
But it does not mean BN was not troubling Pakatan, especially the DAP, in Chinese-dominated areas.
Swing to BN?
Pro-Pakatan cyber mongers and bloggers have been saying that Penang would be an easy take for the DAP and company. But on the ground, things look different.
People might claim that the economically vibrant Chinese would go for Pakatan because they wanted a change after “suffering” for so long under 56-year-old Umno–BN rule.
The community seems mesmerised by Pakatan’s enforced “Ubah… Ini Kalilah” (Change … This Is The Time).
Is that true? The answer would be known on May 5.
Many did not know that the election chant “Ini Kalilah” was a tagline that originated from Sabah-based STAR party.
BN’s promise to restore the state’s free port status (FPS) and the recent elevation of Han Chiang school to university-college status, a symbol of Chinese education in Penang, surely would win over voters, especially among businessmen.
Some said the majority of Malays and Indians understood the “Ubah” tagline differently.
Many are said they would back BN this time, unlike in 2008.
Malay swing towards BN is said to be so strong that even Pakatan and PKR de facto leader Anwar Ibrahim is said to be having a “torrid time” in his home turf, the Permatang Pauh parliamentary constituency.
He faces a tough fight against BN’s Dr Mazlan Ismail from Umno and Independent Dr Abdullah Zawawi Samsuddin.
In an unlikely event, a defeat for Anwar will be the biggest upset in this election.
Another heavyweight, Karpal Singh, should win his Bukit Gelugor parliamentary seat for a third term.
Battles between Umno’s state chairman Zainal Abidin Osman and his PKR counterpart Mansor Othman in Nibong Tebal parliamentary seat and between the DAP state deputy chairman and his MIC counterpart L Krishnan in Prai state seat are still 50–50.
The DAP looks a safe bet for 12 state seats, mainly in Chinese seats on the island, while Umno looks favourite to add more seats to its 11 state and two federal seats won in 2008.
Indeed some pundits claimed Umno can make a clean sweep of 15 state and five federal seats this time.
Out of Pakatan’s current 29 seats, some 15 to 18 seats are said up for grabs for both coalitions.
If the Malay-Indian swing towards BN is true, BN could cross the magical 20-seat margin to grab the state government from Pakatan’s clutch, provided BN gets at least 30% Chinese votes.
Of course, Pakatan diehards would rubbish such speculations and even ridicule this writer with all sorts of sarcasm, a standard operating procedure of the ill-mannered and unruly pro-Pakatan cyber mongers.
But truth is those who don’t know what’s happening would insist that Pakatan would win convincingly especially when “the country is marching towards a change in Putrajaya”.
But those who know what’s happening will say “wait and see”. Pakatan and BN are not counting their chickens yet. Every vote counts this time in Penang.
