KOTA MARUDU: With barely two days to go, the brooding silence behind the cordial smiles that greet the Barisan Nasional campaigners in Sabah is “worrying”.
Even as the mainstream newspapers here blare headlines of caretaker Chief Minister Musa Aman’s plea for Sabahans to return Barisan Nasional back to power, across Sabah – from Sandakan to Kudat, and from Kota Marudu to Sipitang – the smiles, hospitality and crowds at BN ceramahs are no longer a benchmark of support.
There’s a worrying “feel” to the ground similar, yet dissimilar, to the time of the 1985 general election when then chief minister Harris Salleh, for all the millions he pumped into his Tenom constituency, unexpectedly lost and his Berjaya-led Sabah BN coalition retained only six of the then 48 state seats.
The core issues then were land and religion. It was Harris who, together with then Usno president Mustapha Harun, led the formation of Sabah Umno.
Unlike previous elections, it’s “no longer about policies and promises”. Because simmering beneath the blue T-shirts, flag-donned vehicles and banner-graced walls across Sabah beat hearts that are pushing for “tukar”.
“This election is different…”, said a fruitseller in Kota Marudu’s busy market. He was wearing a blue BN T-shirt and confessed to campaigning after market hours.
“Ini kali bukan macam dulu… tidak tau apa dalam hati (this time is not like before… don’t know what’s in their heart,]” he said.
In the back kitchen of a seafood outlet in coastal Kudat, an owner-operator candidly said “tukar lah” (tukar being “change” in English) – the Pakatan Rakyat catchphrase here – when asked about the mood in the constituency.
And hundreds of miles away in Membakut on the way to Sipitang, a shopkeeper pointed to his shirt and said “kita tukar ini baju… sudah begini lama sekali”,when asked the same.
Between “Tukar”, “Ubah” (DAP’s tagline) and “Ini Kali Lah” (local State Reform Party’s [STAR] catchphrase) campaign, BN is finding it hard to breathe.
Said Pitas BN incumbent Bolkiah Ismail: “The opposition [parties] appear much stronger now. They seem more organised and have the machinery. They are putting up a strong fight. Last time, you did not see so many posters around but now it’s different,” he said.
Though confident of a BN victory in the 13th general election, Bolkiah believes that the margins of majority may be reduced.
“My belief is that the opposition will have to wait at least another term before it can realise its ambition of replacing BN,” he told reporters here on Wednesday.
Bolkiah is in a three-cornered fight against PKR’s Maklin Masiau, PAS-Pakatan’s Dausieh Queck and SAPP’s Johaness Piut. In the 2008 election,he won the seat in a four-cornered tussle securing 5,761 of the 7,921 votes polled.
Young voters angry
Three hundred kilometres away in Pantai Manis, PKR state assembly candidate Fred Ghani, 42, disagrees.
A “new face” in politics, he sees himself as the spokesman for the young Sabahans who make up the bulk of the new voters in the 2013 polls.
Pantai Manis is part of the Papar parliamentary constituency where the demographics are 40% KadazanDusunMuruts (KDM), 10% Chinese and the balance, Malay-Muslims.
According to him, Sabah is ready to rid itself of BN and “it will happen this time”.
Ghani said the young voters were more aware of what was happening at state and national levels.
“They know about the religious discrimination, and the Allah issue. They know about Ibrahim Ali [of Perkasa] and his call to burn the Bible.
“They are angry at our leaders [Bernard] Dompok, [Joseph] Pairin [Kitingan] for not speaking up and defending their religion and people.
“We are also concerned about the lack of opportunities for youths and the slow development in the state,” he said.
According to him, the GE13 on May 5 will be a “turning point” for Sabah.
“We are confident that change is coming,” said Ghani, the only Christian candidate in the fray for the state seat.
Most votes won’t sway
Further down in Sipitang’s Sindumin state constituency, SAPP vice-chairman Amdee Sidek said the younger Sabahans were now bolder and “fearless” about voicing their opinions.
“The young are bold and fearless now. Not like before. They want to see change. It is no more just about government policies and promises.
“They want Umno and the federal government out,” said Amdee who is contesting for the Sindumin state seat. He is confident that the winds of change will aid his success in this polls.
Asked about BN’s much-feared millions of ringgit which it is likely to begin distributing today in its final thrust to rein in the voters before the polls, Amdee said: “We cannot beat them [BN] with money.
“We can only hope that the voters will take the money and vote wisely.”
Meanwhile in Kuala Penyu, seasoned candidate John Ghani said: “Yes, we know they [BN] will be distributing a lot of money like they did in previous elections.
“But this time it is different. We are very confident that the people will vote with their conscience.
“They will take the money but this time they will not sell their soul.”
Political observers here are confident that Pakatan – the opposition bloc – could win up to 12 out of the 25 parliamentary seats in Sabah in the May 5 polls.
They, however, reserved their comments on how STAR will perform, except to say that their “victories” will “probably only come from the interior seats”.
Secret plan?
Speculations are rife here that STAR chief Jeffrey Kitingan has his brother Pairin’s unofficial backing and that the latter, together with Upko president Bernard Dompok, are hedging their bets.
Said a Parti Bersatu Sabah (PBS) insider in Kota Marudu where BN-PBS deputy chief Maximus Ongkili is struggling to defend his seat: “If Jeffrey wins 15-20 seats, then the KDM leaders will quit and join him. Everyone is fed up of Umno and federal parties.
“It is time for KDMs to join [forces] and take back Sabah from the illegals.”
According to Ongkili, a “secret” plan is in place.
“On the face of it, it looks like a multi-cornered fight but it is not so. We have a plan and it will work this time.
“Sekarang, kita semua sudah tahu [now we all know], ini kali lah kita tukar,” he said, adding that after 50 years and having received nothing in return for Sabahans’ loyalty to Umno-BN, giving away the next five years to an opposition party is “biasa” (normal).
But with two days to go, the current upsurge for Pakatan in Sabah could change as serious “money politics” comes into play.
According to Universiti Malaya’s Centre for Democracy and Elections (Umcedel), in the 2008 general election the final swing came 48 hours before the election. BN, which had until then been on solid ground, eventually went on to lose five states to the opposition bloc.
With the BN machinery is expected to vigorously rain money in Sabah’s interior in the upcoming hours, it’s left to be seen if the various predictions by political observers will materialise.
Already it was reported yesterday that BN had the upper hand in the interiors.
According to a Bernama survey, BN had consolidated itself in five parliamentary and 11 state seats in the lower and upper interiors of Sabah. If this is true, then STAR is in deep trouble and is unlikely to see even a single seat victory.
With the gathering winds of change across the country, the question now is: will May 5 deliver to Sabah a two-party government? And will Pakatan arrive in Putrajaya?
