April 19 – The Narendra Modi wave seems to have hit the shores of West Bengal raising concern among other political parties in the state.
What was once a Left Front bastion before the Trinamool Congress stole a march is witnessing a saffron surge and one that has shaken the political establishment in the state. The saffron brigade is likely to emerge as a significant force in the ongoing Lok Sabha elections, increasing its vote share from about 6 per cent, registered in 2009, to at least 12 percent in 2014.
Opinion polls and surveys indicate that the BJP may gain close to 10 per cent of the vote share in West Bengal, which may impact political calculations. And much has to do with the Modi wave that has helped in polarising the vote bank. Barring Muslims who form 28 per cent of the total electorate, the rest of the minorities are rather insignificant and a polarisation of the Hindu votes could work wonders for the BJP in West Bengal.
The BJP had received about 12 per cent of votes in the 1991 Lok Sabha elections riding on the Ram Janmabhoomi wave. But it is widely believed that this time it might break its 1991 record.
The by- election in Jangipur Lok Sabha constituency last year probably hinted the emergence of the BJP in Bengal for the first time. Then the BJP had secured about 11 per cent of the votes compared to nearly four per cent in earlier years.
Sources in the BJP said the party increased its membership two fold within a span of three years. The total membership has shot up from nearly three lakh in 2011 to over seven lakh in 2013, of which about two lakh new members have reportedly enrolled in the last six months.
The BJP’s youth and women wings also witnessed a significant surge of about 50 per cent in the past few months. It gathered momentum mainly after the announcement of Modi’s name as the BJP’s prime ministerial candidate.
” We are confident of doing well in the Lok Sabha elections in Bengal. The state BJP is expecting a good polling percentage in at least 18 out of the 42 seats in the state,” state BJP president Rahul Sinha said.
Sinha said in some seats the BJP could emerge as a major factor and those seats are likely to be Kolkata- North, Krishnanagar, Asansol, Sreeampore, Barasat, Dum Dum and Alipurduar.
The BJP’s increasing prominence in state politics has upset the Trinamool with Mamata Banerjee sharpening her attacks on Modi. Mamata claimed the BJP, the Congress and the CPI( M) have joined hands to defeat the TMC in Bengal. Sources said the BJP may eat into Trinamool votes which may help the Left Front, considering the changing political scenario in Bengal.
“The BJP is getting stronger in Bengal. There is no question about. But whether it will materialise into seats, I am not very sure about that,” political observer Dipankar Dasgupta said.
Interestingly, the CPI( M)- led Left Front is also worried with the rise of the BJP and Left Front chairman Biman Bose had publicly acknowledged that the party posts a challenge.
” The BJP’s rise is a reality in Bengal and a cause of concern for us. We need to fight them politically,” Bose had admitted.
