Aug 29 – If elections are the reality checks in politics, then the BJP has got one. The NDA’s defeat in 10 of 18 seats in by-elections in Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka and Punjab, within 100 days of sweeping to power nationally, has highlighted the challenge the saffron combine faces as it seeks to expand its hold at the state level.
For its rivals, the nightmare of the Lok Sabha results has made way for a glimmer of hope and shown the possible path to revival. Coming ahead of Assembly elections in a clutch of states, the results have shown that the saffron camp may not after all be invincible. The results from the 10 seats in Bihar have particularly jolted the BJP-led alliance as the Lalu Prasad Yadav, Nitish Kumar and Congress combine won six seats after faring miserably in the General Election.
Going by the results of the Lok Sabha polls, the BJP should have won eight of those 10 seats. But the combined might of Lalu, Nitish and Congress pushed the BJP back and worked as an effective mega alliance. On the basis of the total number of votes polled by them in these 10 segments in the Lok Sabha elections, the three parties should have won only four seats.
“The result is below our expectations. We expected to win at least six of the 10 seats. But Nitish Kumar’s celebration is misplaced. The BJP will come out stronger in the Assembly elections next year,” says former Bihar deputy chief minister and BJP leader Sushil Kumar Modi. For the BJP’s rivals, the experimental alliance could be the harbinger of a future realignment against the saffron camp across the country.
“This is the victory of harmony over the forces that create a frenzy,” Nitish said after the bypoll results. Political observers, however, advise caution and say it is premature to suggest that such an alliance of anti-BJP parties would work under all circumstances. Local issues dominate state elections and ruling parties traditionally do well in by-elections. A bad performance by the RJD-JD(U)-Congress combine in Bihar would have been worse news for Nitish than the poor show is for the BJP, they said. “These results are a relief for former chief minister Nitish. A defeat would have led to the downfall of the JD(U) government as many MLAs would have jumped ship,” a JD(U) leader said.
While the outcome is expected to trigger a battle for a larger share of the seats between Nitish and Lalu- if they decide to stick together until the October 2015 state polls-the BJP can take solace in the fact that Bihar’s Assembly by-election results have seldom been replicated in the main elections.
-INDIA TODAY
