KUALA LUMPUR, APRIL 21- The battle between caretaker Human Resources Minister and incumbent Segamat MP Dr S Subramaniam and ex-minister Chua Jui Meng has started and both are expressing optimism that they can win this parliamentary seat in Johor.
Subramaniam, who has been the MP there for two-terms, has poured massive resources into the constituency, boasting of infrastructure projects worth almost RM1 billion in road upgrades and other projects, as well as flood mitigation efforts.
However, he has faced flak from small business owners for his handling of the minimum wage policy, on top of a tide of unhappiness with the government among the Chinese community. Mindful of these factors, Chua is positive about his chances, despite Subramaniam’s repeated taunts that his opponent was out of touch with Segamat.
While this may seem like a mischievousness jibe, the fact that Chua was given the task to contest in Segamat barely a fortnight ago – despite having spent most of his time in Gelang Patah – does indeed pose a hurdle to his hopes for victory.
Sluggish machinery
The PKR machinery that is taking the charge for the first time in this traditional DAP seat has been sluggish, being unable to provide Chua with a proper schedule despite election campaigning having begun. Subramaniam’s camp has been in full swing even before nomination day.
PKR’s machinery also seems to be operating on its own, at least in these early stages, despite the initial show of goodwill between DAP and PKR, after DAP had to surrender Segamat to Chua.
Segamat DAP chief Pang Hok Liong, the DAP candidate for the 2004 and 2008 elections who made way for Chua, appeared demoralised after suffering a double whammy when he was also dropped as a state seat candidate in Jementah. The contestant is Johor DAP secretary Tan Chen Choon.
“We have already activated our machinery, I will still help but no one has contacted me to help. Perhaps they see me as no longer significant… not that I do not offer (help) but they just assume I do not exist,” Pang told Malaysiakiniwhen contacted.
However, this “disconnectedness” among the Pakatan allies is unlikely to have a significant impact as both DAP and PAS are respectively campaigning for their state seat candidates in Jementah and Buloh Kasap the two seats under the Segamat parliamentary constituency. This is likely to create a “spillover effect” that will benefit their PKR ally at the parliamentary level.
The charismatic campaigner
Individually, Chua is a charismatic campaigner and demonstrated his skills during a walkabout at the Kampung Abdullah pasar malam last night, making small talk with the locals – even the reluctant ones – and later took over a stall to grill his own satay.
Excited patrons and hawkers from the Chinese community enthusiastically welcomed him.
In contrast, Subramaniam who coincidentally was there at the same time, received cryptic smiles as he shook hands with hawkers from the Chinese community while one complained point blank about the expensive hawker licence.
Chua, too, received similar cryptic responses when he engaged with the Malay community there, while the sight of Subramaniam was greeted with energetic shouts of “Sokong BN” from a Malay hawker.
Chua can take solace in the fact that the 4,000-strong people who turned up at his ceramah earlier this week in Taman Yayasan had an equal mix of Malays and Chinese, as well as some Indians.
Ceramah turnouts though do not necessarily translate to votes. The crowd that night appeared reluctant when applauding for Chua, compared with their response to other speakers, particularly PAS’ firebrand Mohamad Sabu.
The sentiment is that the ‘Ubah’ fever has, to some extent, caught on with the other communities. They were prepared to listen – but remained neutral.
Malaysiakini retraced Chua’s steps during his walkabout in Gemas Baharu yesterday, speaking to the locals whom he had earlier spoken to.
“He told me to tukar (change). Of course I told him ‘yes’, I could not possible tell him ‘no’ at that moment right?” a restaurant owner of Indian descent told Malaysiakini.
‘Ubah’ mania
However, the 46-year-old, who did not wish to be named, said she was in two minds as Subramaniam had helped the community a lot while Chua was someone she had “seen on television” when he was minister and knew little about.
But she said coffee shop talk of “change”, especially among her customers, has intrigued her. She remains undecided for now and Chua will have the arduous task of convincing people like her.
His charisma alone will not be enough, as having been an MCA member for 35 years and a vice-president of that party who later joined PKR, he has some baggage to carry with him.
“Personally, if you ask me, I don’t really like him. The fact he hopped to another party, that is a matter of principle,” said a 60-year-old motorcycle repair shop owner of Chinese descent who was earlier greeted by Chua.
“But we are talking about change, so we vote for the party, not for the individual,” he added.
It is this mindset that has led to the strong Chinese support for Pakatan. However, lingering doubts among some about Chua could prevent him from maximising his Chinese support.
Chua told Malaysiakini that he expects Chinese support for Pakatan Rakyat to be at record levels.
However, even garnering 80 percent Chinese support, which would already be record-breaking, could only allow Chua to scrap through a win in Segamat, which comprises 44 percent Malays, 46 percent Chinese and 10 percent Indians.
Chua will need 85 percent of the community’s support to safely secure the seat – a monumental feat even with a high anti-BN percentage among the Chinese community.
This is based on the assumption that Pakatan in Segamat will only be able to capture 20 percent of the Malay votes and 50 percent of the Indian votes.
In 2008, the opposition garner between 10 percent to 15 percent of voter support in Segamat’s polling districts with large Malay majorities, such as Gemereh and Kuala Paya, and it was less than 10 percent in the Palong Timur polling district where a Felda scheme is located.
Lack of local roots
Chua is further constrained by his lack of links with the local associations because of his newbie status in Segamat while Subramaniam, who has morning ‘tai chi’ sessions with the local Chinese aunties in various ‘tai chi’ groups, hopes to weather the anti-BN feelings tide through such links.
Subramaniam has said he hoped to garner at least 30 to 40 percent of Chinese support, which is unlikely as it is expected to be lower, putting him in a precarious – though not fatal -situation as this will be mitigated through his strong links with the local community and counteracted by strong Malay support.
For Chua, hoping for more than 80 percent of Chinese support may prove too optimistic and he would do better to also secure a bigger slice from the swing among Malay voters – above the 20 percent mark for Pakatan – in his battle to win.
If inroads among the Malay community cannot go above 20 percent and Chinese support becomes saturated at 80 percent for Chua, the Indian population there will be the decisive factor for a razor thin victory on either side.
Hindraf’s pro-BN stance is unlikely to play a factor among the Indian community, and sources close to Subramaniam’s campaign concur with this as they see the local Indian community lacking knowledge about Hindraf.
However, Subramaniam himself has close links with the local Indians.
An elderly Indian woman who nodded several times to Chua as he pointed to the PKR logo on his vest and said to her: “Pilih ini, tukar” (Choose this, change) later told Malaysiakini she was “very happy” with the RM500 BR1M government aid that she had received twice.
“Subramaniam helped us a lot. He’s also from our community,” she said.
All factors considered, the battle for Segamat will be a tough one and victory will favour the side that can pull its act together in the next 14 days of campaigning – on top of a multiracial appeal that will make their chances significantly brighter.
