SEREMBAN: Pakatan Rakyat is leading in the race to capture the Negeri Sembilan State Legislative Assembly.
A random FMT survey of voters’ preferences indicate that DAP, PAS or PKR are ahead of their Barisan Nasional rivals in 19 of the 36 contests for state seats.
The 19 are Bahau, Klawang, Chennah, Repah, Johol, Paroi, Port Dickson, Lukut, Chuah, Mambau, Senawang, Rahang, Bukit Kepayang, Lobak, Temiang, Nilai, Ampangan, Sikamat and Lenggeng.
DAP is leading in all 11 contests it is engaged in.
PKR, however, is not doing so well. It looks like it will not do better than retaining the four seats it won in 2008, which are Port Dickson, Chuah, Ampangan and Sikamat.
PAS is likely to improve upon its performance in 2008, when it won only the Paroi seat. It is expected to keep Paroi and add Klawang, Johol and Lenggeng to its tally.
The situation is shakiest for Pakatan in Johol, Lukut, Ampangan and Rahang. It is only slightly ahead of BN in these four constituencies.
BN should not have much trouble retaining Palong, Jeram Padang, Serting, Sungai Lui, Pertang, Sri Menanti, Pilah, Senaling, Juasseh, Gemas, Gemencheh, Kota, Chembong, Rantau, Linggi, Bagan Pinang and Labu.
However, Pakatan has the potential to overtake BN in Palong, Pilah and Linggi. All three seats used to be Umno strongholds, but some of the party’s branches in these three places are unhappy with BN’s choice of candidates for them.
Former Jempol MP Lilah Yasin is the BN candidate in Palong. Umno members are unhappy with the choice because he is not a local boy.
Recycled candidate
In Pilah, local Umno leaders consider Norhayati Omar as a recycled candidate. She won the seat in both the 1999 and 2004 elections, but was replaced as a candidate in 2008 and by the much younger Adnan Abu Hasan. Observers are surprised that BN has chosen to drop Adnan this time around. His service to the constituents is said to be satisfactory.
In Linggi, Umno members generally do not support the nomination of Abdul Rahman Mohd Redza as the BN candidate. He is a local boy, but his detractors say he was hardly seen in Linggi in the last five years.
In Jeram Padang, PKR’s T Kumar needs to put in more effort to influence Malay voters in the Felda schemes of Palong 1, Palong 2 and Rokan Barat.
In the contest for parliamentary seats in the state, BN should cruise to victory in Jelebu, Kuala Pilah, Tampin and Rembau. Pakatan has little chance of winning these four seats even if it steps up its campaigning this week.
However, the opposition pact should be able to retain Seremban and Rasah without much trouble.
The most interesting parliamentary battles will be in Teluk Kemang and Jempol.
BN’s VS Mogan is said leading to be leading in Teluk Kemang. However, his challenger and incumbent for the seat, PKR’s Kamarul Baharin Abbas is no pushover. He is banking on Malay and Chinese votes to retain the seat.
Malays form 42.4% of the 70,524 voters in Teluk Kemang. The Chinese account for 33.8%. Indian voters form 21.4% of the electorate, and pundits say most of them will vote for Mogan.
Former singing star Wan Aishah Ariffin, contesting under PAS in Jempol, is trailing close behind former menteri besar Mohd Isa Abdul Samad.
A clearer picture will emerge in the next five days.
