New Delhi, October 10 -Despite the break-up of the two principal political alliances in Maharashtra, the state could well be heading for a re-marriage of the old partners or witness the formation of new alliances after October 19 when the votes for the Assembly polls will be counted.
The India Today Group-Cicero opinion poll has predicted that the BJP may win 133 of the 288 seats in Maharashtra, putting the saffron party within striking distance of forming a government on its own. The party, which won 46 seats in 2009, also gains significantly in vote share with a jump from 14 per cent in 2009 to 30 per cent projected this year.
However, in case the BJP wins around 125 seats – the least number predicted in the poll – it will have to piggyback on Shiv Sena or reach out to the NCP chief Sharad Pawar.
The opinion poll, conducted between September 30 and October 4, says Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena will be the second largest gainer in Maharashtra with 57 seats, a marginal gain of 13 seats from 2009. The 25-year-old alliance between the BJP and the Shiv Sena saw an acrimonious split last month after weeks of intense parleys over sharing of seats for the October 15 polls.
The Congress and the Sharad Pawar-led NCP, which ruled the state for 15 years, are likely to face an anti-incumbency backlash with just 30 and 33 seats respectively. In 2009, the Congress had won 82 while the NCP got 62 seats. In a dramatic turn of events, their alliance also broke within hours of the BJP-Sena split, making the elections next week a four-cornered contest after decades. Also read: For CM’s post, BJP leaders have edge over Uddhav
Though Pawar’s NCP is set to lose 50 per cent of the seats it won in 2009, he can take solace in the fact that only 10 per cent respondents considered the party to be corrupt while 49 per cent say that its former alliance partner, the Congress, was the most corrupt.
Though Raj Thackeray’s Maharashtra Navnirman Sena was expected to be the fifth angle in the October 15 elections, the opinion poll says the party is likely to bag just 10 seats, down by three in 2009.
Who does Maharashtra prefer as its chief minister?
When it came to preferring a chief ministerial candidate, the respondents seemed to have little concern about who the BJP fields for the top post. The emergence of Shiv Sena chief Uddhav Thackeray as the second most preferred CM candidate indicated that his chief ministerial ambition has enough public support.
Prithiviraj Chavan, the incumbent chief minister who resigned as soon as the Congress-NCP alliance broke last month, only gets a nine per cent approval rating. Union minister Nitin Gadkari fares better than him with 11 per cent votes.
The NCP chief Sharad Pawar and the MNS chief Raj Thackeray are way behind their compatriots with six and five per cent of votes respectively.
What factors will decide the October 15 polls?
The discontent among voters was palpable as 50 per cent of the respondents said they were unhappy with the performance of the Congress-NCP alliance, which ruled Maharashtra for 15 years.
Must Read: Cicero opinion poll: How Maharashtra bastions are likely to vote
Apart from anti-incumbency, what could work in the BJP’s favour is the fact that 43 per cent respondents believe that the Narendra Modi government at the Centre has performed as expected. In fact, 13 per cent of the voters said Modi has performed beyond expectations.
With corruption emerging as the most significant issue in Maharashtra this year, the findings can hurt the Congress. The other poll issues are water and power shortage, bad roads and inflation.
A total of 7,346 interviews were conducted at 381 locations spread across 96 Assembly constituencies in Maharashtra for the India Today Group-Cicero opinion poll.
-INDIA TODAY
