5 May – Having covered the campaign trends for the last two weeks, 3 possible outcomes are predicted when Malaysians finish voting today in this historic 13th general election.
Outcome # 1 : Pakatan forming the federal government with overwhelming majority.
Going by the favourable factors and the support expressed by people all over the country especially the young voters, Pakatan Rakyat may be able to win with a sweeping mandate surpassing 140 parliament seats and even reaching a two-third majority.
This prediction is based on the following factors:-
- The mood for change sweeping across the nation;
- More than 80% of the Chinese voters are expected to vote for the opposition;
- The debacle of ROS in issuing a letter to DAP not recognizing their newly elected team just two days before the nominations, without even calling for a proper inquiry. This has angered Malaysians especially the Chinese voters as an ‘underhand’ tactic;
- Fielding of Ibrahim Ali and Zulkifli Nordin which has demolished the concept of 1Malaysia. Malaysians, especially the non-Malays are greatly disappointed and this will have a backlash on BN.
- The signing of BN-Hindraf memorandum of understanding which has driven away the Indian voters from BN.
- The confidence of Malay voters in Pakatan because of Anwar Ibrahim’s leadership coupled with the presence of overwhelming ‘Malay factor’ in Pakatan Rakyat. The Malay voters are also comfortable with the presence of PAS which assures them of the ‘Islamic factor’.
- The populist promises such as reduction of petrol prices, abolishing of TOLL rates, abolishing of PTPTN loans, and free education up to tertiary level- all of which have captured the imagination of Malaysians irrespective of their racial background. These promises have also prompted Malaysians to say “Let’s give them one chance and see” giving rise to the slogan “Ini Kalilah”.
Outcome # 2 : Pakatan winning by a slim majority.
The second possible outcome is Pakatan winning by a slim majority of about 10 seats. They can reach around 120 to 125 parliament seats.
This outcome is also based on the above factors stated in ‘Outcome # 1” but giving due consideration to the might of BN and recognising their formidable political experience.
Outcome # 3: Barisan Nasional winning by a slim majority
There is no way BN can win with a two-third majority but they may be able to scrap through with a slim majority based on the following factors:-
- Ensuring that the ‘ultra-Malay’ voters stay with BN and UMNO by instilling fear and suspicion among Malay voters that their Malay supremacy will be lost if UMNO loses federal power; Joining forces with PERKASA reaffirms this approach by UMNO.
- The influence of BRM1 among poor and middle class Malaysian voters especially those in rural areas;
- Rampant play of ‘money politics’ with astonishing sums of money being spent by BN in this general election;
- The personal appeal of Najib Tun Razak as prime minister coupled with with his father’s image among Malay voters;
- ‘Dubious voters issue’ which gives rise to speculation of vote-rigging. The Election Commission is unable to solve this issue and is unable to give a credible and satisfactory answer.
- Neutral and undecided voters may opt to choose BN for continuity and to avoid consequences of change of government.
Politics is not only an art of prediction but also an art of reasoning why the predictions failed.
Let us see whether the above predictions come true tonight or we end up giving reasons why our predictions failed…..
-R.Mutharasan
